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DAWN EDITORIAL: 24 April 2025
IN the aftermath of Tuesday’s militant attack on tourists in India-held Kashmir’s Pahalgam area, South Asia once again stands on a knife’s edge.
Displaying a knee-jerk reaction to the tragedy, in which over 25 people were killed, the Indian foreign secretary has highlighted the alleged “cross-border linkages of the terrorist attack”, dragging Pakistan into this deplorable episode.
New Delhi has responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, which has survived wars and periods of tension, further downgrading diplomatic relations, and closing the Attari border crossing. Pakistan, which had initially expressed concern and condolences over the attack, will calibrate its response today, as the prime minister has convened a meeting of the National Security Committee to review the situation.
The assault has been claimed by ‘The Resistance Front’, a hitherto unknown entity; media reports have quoted the outfit as claiming the attack to protest against demographic changes in the disputed region. This is probably the biggest attack targeting civilians in IHK in 25 years. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has termed the assault as a possible “false flag operation”. No cause can justify the targeting of innocent non-combatants, and the incident must be roundly condemned.
However, India must also look inwards and review its brutal rule in held Kashmir, which has bred immense discontent. And when all peaceful avenues for a just resolution to the Kashmir dispute are blocked, it is not surprising that some inside the occupied territory take up guns to express their anger. Ever since doing away with the disputed region’s limited autonomy in August 2019, the BJP-led government has pretended that ‘all is well’ in IHK. That is not the case. Even voices within India are questioning the government’s claims of having established calm. For example, India’s opposition leader, Rahul Gandhi, has asked the rulers to move beyond “hollow claims” of peace in occupied Kashmir.
Genuine peace can only come to Kashmir — and the rest of South Asia — when this nearly eight-decade-old dispute is resolved as per the wishes of the Kashmiris, with buy-in from Pakistan and India. If the Hindu nationalist government in New Delhi thinks it can stamp out all peaceful calls for freedom and justice through brute force and intimidation, then there will be no end to blood-soaked episodes.
The tragic events in Pahalgam should serve as a wake-up call for India’s rulers: if they want peace in IHK, and peace between Pakistan and India, then sincere efforts must be made to resolve the Kashmir question at the negotiating table, involving the Kashmiris as well as Pakistan.
From here, Pakistan must proceed with caution and prepare a calm yet firm response to India’s allegations, and threats. While de-escalation is the preferred course of action, India should also know that any misadventure will be met by Pakistan resolutely.
Published in Dawn, April 24th, 2025
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DAWN EDITORIAL: 24 April 2025
THE downgrading of the IMF’s growth forecast for Pakistan by 40bps to 2.6pc is perturbing, especially considering the country’s elevated poverty levels. More than 42pc of the population currently lives below the poverty line, while the World Bank estimates that 1.9m more people will fall into this category this year. An update to the World Economic Outlook notes that Pakistan’s economic growth is not enough to bring down poverty, despite a stabilising economy and the easing of inflation. Economists believe that the economy must grow by 6-8pc a year to cut poverty and create jobs for 2-3m new workers. The new IMF growth projections for Pakistan are based on the multilateral financial institution’s concerns about the potential impact of the high reciprocal US tariffs on its economy. Revising growth projections for the global economy as well as individual countries days after US President Donald Trump slammed his reciprocal tariffs on all of America’s trading partners and higher tariffs on dozens of countries — including Pakistan — running a trade surplus with the US, it notes that the tariffs have triggered a new climate of uncertainty.
At the moment, the IMF says, the situation is complex and fluid. Countries like ours continue to wonder what sort of deal, if any, they can strike with the Trump administration to maintain their share in the world’s largest consumer market. It is unclear then how Pakistan plans to negotiate with, and what it can offer, the Trump administration to get a favourable deal. However, some reports suggest that the government may offer American companies greater access to unexplored deposits of rare earth elements and dismantle barriers to US imports. While it is important to save — in fact, expand — our share in the US market, our policymakers also need to revisit their economic strategy. The post-tariff situation poses many challenges as the world enters an uncertain era amid escalating global trade tensions, but it also offers opportunities. However, the latter can only be exploited if the focus shifts to quicker implementation of structural reforms to attract FDI to boost industrial and agricultural productivity for diversifying and increasing exports through technology transfers. Unfortunately, to avoid a backlash from the powerful business lobbies and others, the authorities continue to look for short-term economic fixes rather than taking the more difficult route of mustering the political will to execute much-needed structural reforms.
Published in Dawn, April 24th, 2025
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DAWN EDITORIAL: 24 April 2025
AS controversy over the new canals continues to rage, traders across the country have begun raising the alarm over economic contagion from the crisis. With protesters blockading key nodes in the logistics routes between Sindh and Punjab, hundreds of goods trucks and fuel tankers have been stranded on the roads for days, with reports suggesting that the lines ‘stretch for miles’ in some areas. “The entire supply chain is paralysed,” according to the KCCI president. “The situation is not only hurting businesses and industries but also jeopardising employment and trade” — a concern shared by trade leaders in other parts of the country as well. Exporters of perishable items are in a particularly vulnerable position, with their goods at risk of spoiling on the roads before they can reach the ports. Others are worried that foreign buyers may cancel their orders due to the delays. Meanwhile, the Oil Companies Advisory Council has warned of potential fuel shortages upcountry if the situation is not addressed.
As goods movement both north and south remains suspended, a wide range of industries and enterprises are facing disruptions and unnecessary financial losses due to what is essentially a political failure. While the federal government and the PPP have recently agreed to collaborate on addressing Sindh’s concerns over the proposed canals, many businesses engaged in commerce and international trade may not be able to wait out a lengthy negotiation process. It is imperative, therefore, for the federal government to take immediate steps to reassure protesters that their concerns have been heard and will be justly and promptly addressed. Likewise, the Sindh government, if it is satisfied with the steps being taken at the federal level, must play its part in pacifying the protesters and ensuring that the blockades can be removed quickly and peacefully, without further confrontation. The suspension of the goods traffic will eventually start hurting ordinary people. It is crucial, therefore, for decision-makers to move quickly.
Published in Dawn, April 24th, 2025
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Khurram Husain //DAWN: April 24, 2025
THE system is now under mounting pressure and has run into an entirely unnecessary impasse. The ‘system’ here consists of the unique configuration of power that emerged from the tainted elections of February 2024. In this configuration, everybody has been given just enough of a slice of power to obtain their buy-in, but not enough for any of them to become spoilers.
The PPP gets Sindh, Nawaz Sharif and family get Punjab, and the PTI gets KP, while Shehbaz Sharif sees his age-old wish to sit in the prime minister’s chair fulfilled. Balochistan remains an orphan in this configuration, like it has in most previous ones. It is the one province that needs an organic and rooted political process more than any other to arrest its spiral into insurgency.
Each party in this configuration brought its own limited agenda to the table. The PPP just wants to stay in power in Sindh. The Nawaz family wants to wean back the Punjab voter, which it lost to the PTI. It is not clear what exactly the PTI leadership in KP wants. They can’t seem to make up their minds whether they are part of the system of rule in the country, or an insurgent force out to topple it. And at the centre, the government of Shehbaz Sharif just wants to last its term by balancing the demands placed upon it by all its partners in the Assembly and its patrons in power.
Into this delicate configuration, where it is more or less each to their own, come two entirely unnecessary demands that have become lightning rods for discontentment. One is the canals project in Punjab, which has stirred the street in Sindh in a way not seen in decades. For almost a week now, the towns and cities of the province have been ablaze with protests, joined by civil society organisations including the big bar associations of Karachi.
The National Highway has been blocked in at least three places, halting the movement of cargo of raw materials to industry upcountry, finished goods for export orders from upcountry to the ports, oil movement, and all else besides. The Oil Companies Advisory Council has warned that 800 tankers are stranded between Sukkur and Larkana, and oil shortages could develop in Punjab and KP if the road is not opened up quickly.
The entire supply chain for industry is now disrupted as the protests have moved into their second week, and are escalating. Strikes have been announced by goods carriers, highways and key arteries have been blocked, and now there is talk of a province-wide general strike in the days ahead.
The PPP has found itself in the crossfire in all this. They gave a weak response to the initial announcement of the so-called Green Pakistan Initiative, which aims to build a series of canals in the Cholistan desert to irrigate arid land. Withdrawals of water from the Indus river system are a highly contentious issue in Sindh, which is the lower riparian and has already suffered heavily due to the drying up of water flows. It makes no sense to irrigate a desert with river water that is needed for agriculture downstream.
But in this configuration of power, where every member of the power system is in the game for their own interests, somehow it made sense to somebody in the so-called Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) to launch this project.
The minerals bill in the KP Assembly has turned into a similar lightning rod around which the discontents of this system — and they are legion — have been mobilised. The issue arose from the desire of the establishment to try and attract investment in the mining and minerals sector in Pakistan. In pursuit of this desire, bills were introduced in the provincial assemblies of Balochistan and KP. Both bills carry “the unmistakable imprint of the civil-military SIFC” according to an editorial in this paper, mainly because they allow for a door through which the federal government can encroach upon the mineral wealth of a territory, which is otherwise legally a provincial subject.
The Balochistan Assembly rubber-stamped the bill, but in KP it ran into stiff opposition. Initially, it was approved by the provincial cabinet, and the leadership of the PTI seemed to agree on ensuring its passage. But an uproar ensued when the provincial Speaker introduced it in the KP Assembly, with stiff opposition coming from the ANP and legislators from the merged districts. They were later joined by the JUI-F.
But here’s the rub. The combined voting power of all these parties is not enough to stop the passage of the bill should the Speaker put it up for a vote. With barely 20 members out of 146, they would be swept aside easily if the ruling party decides to see the bill through. But despite two attempts by the Speaker to hold meetings and hammer out a consensus, and despite high-level attempts by the PTI leadership of the province, the bill is still stalled mainly because the PTI leadership is unable to persuade its own members to vote in its favour. In the last attempt to forge a consensus, the Speaker said no further attempts to advance the bill could be made without the explicit authorisation of the party’s incarcerated chairman Imran Khan.
Neither controversy was necessary. The canals are a vanity project and not worth stirring up the whole system for. And investments in minerals can be arranged easily with a few tweaks to the existing legislation from 2017, with no need to bring in new legislation. What is at stake here is obviously a federal government that wants to lay claim to deeply held provincial prerogatives — mineral wealth and water allocations. And for this reason alone the entire configuration of power built after the elections of 2024 is now being tested.
The writer is a business and economy journalist.
Published in Dawn, April 24th, 2025
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