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Newspapers: 15.04.2021
Thu-15Apr-2021
 
 

Russia-Pakistan relations: embracing the bear

The Russian amity offering a “blank cheque”, and geo-economic cooperation are unprecedented


Inam Ul Haque April 15, 2021
Express Tribune's column
 

 

The writer is a retired major general and has an interest in International Relations and Political Sociology. He can be reached at tayyarinam@hotmail.com and tweets @20_Inam 

“Let’s bury the past,” were the words of my counterpart in Moscow at the Ministry of Defence, where I was heading a tri-service military delegation some years ago. We were in Moscow coinciding with the biennial Spasskaya Tower Military Music Festival, where our military band was invited for the first time. The crowd was ecstatic to the tune of “Chandni ratein”, especially when it played for the general public outside the festival venue at Red Square and at the grounds of the sprawling Moscow university. Moscow had billboards welcoming us. The amity was surprising and unusual. 

The recent two-day (April 6-7) Islamabad visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was a first visit by any Russian foreign minister in almost a decade. He delivered an “important” message from President Vladimir Putin. Lavrov had arrived in Islamabad after spending two days (April 5-6) in New Delhi. Media reported Indian unhappiness with his Pakistani itinerary and Prime Minister Narendra Modi avoided meeting Lavrov.

This was an important visit in the rapidly evolving regional environment. The Russian amity offering a “blank cheque”, and geo-economic cooperation are unprecedented. The scope of the visit spanned economy, trade, energy, counter-terrorism, security/defence, education, and people-to-people exchanges. Discussions reportedly covered regional dynamics, Afghanistan peace, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as its flagship project.

Russian foreign policy tries to address its demographic dilution-in-space, in a not-so-friendly Euro-Asian neighbourhood. Economic woes, historic food shortages and its Central Asian soft underbelly remain its vulnerabilities. It is also concerned by Islamic extremism and revisionism (read: Turkey). Foreign military sales (FMS) mostly dictate Russian policy references. 

Russia-Pakistan relations have many constants and variables. Constants could be identified as geography/Afghanistan, history and the India factor. Variables are Russian defence and energy surpluses, US hostility towards Kremlin, China and our market.

The post-Soviet rapprochement between Russia and Pakistan, the former Cold War rivals, started in 2011 after Pak-US relations nosedived. In policy calibration, Pakistan decided to reach out to Russia to diversify its foreign policy options. Military diplomacy (and exchanges) led the initiative. 

Both Pakistan and Russia inhabit common neighbourhood, with Afghanistan remaining a binding denominator. Both sides are interested in Afghanistan’s stability… Russia dearly wanting to preclude the burgeoning drug smuggling through Tajikistan and keeping the Central Asian republics — its traditional backyard — free from any extremist influences. Both support an “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” solution with Russia leading a parallel peace initiative called the “Moscow format” to supplement the Doha process.

In the anticipated economic cooperation with Pakistan, Russia is reported to have an investment portfolio of $14 billion in gas infrastructure. The $2 billion North-South gas pipeline project from Karachi to Lahore, agreed in 2015, awaits alternative structure to start, due to US sanctions against Russia. 

Russia is keen to revive the Pakistan Steel Mills, built in 1974 by a consortium of Pakistani companies under the supervision of Soviet engineers/experts. Russia has provided Pakistan with 50,000 coronavirus vaccine doses (Sputnik V) with another 150,000 in the pipeline. 

Russia has vast defence potential, as witnessed during a biennial Defence Expo in 2016, near Ekaterinburg, in northern Russia (where only Russian companies participated). Moscow ranks second in the world in arms export, supplying arms/military equipment to some 66 countries. Russia has military/technical cooperation agreements with 85 countries. Its yearly defence exports are over a staggering $46 billion. Five countries: India, Vietnam, China, Algeria and Venezuela comprise 74% of Russian arms exports (2012-16). 

Russian military technology is high-end, decidedly better than China’s and not as expensive as the West’s. It is a middle order solution for resource-strained militaries like Pakistan. If the red tape that mars its official exporter, the Rosoboronexport, is overcome; it remains a lucrative shopping destination for military hardware. Rosoboronexport alone controls the export of the entire range of Russian military/dual-use products, services and technologies. 

Despite Indian objections, Russia-Pakistan militaries have held joint exercises since 2016. Recent Russian willingness to offer “special military equipment” to enhance Pakistan’s anti-terrorist potential is admirable; but if the past is any guide, bilateral military/industrial cooperation has remained complex and much below the actual potential. With international relations in reverse; India, the erstwhile Russian ally, is fastly “seen” drifting towards the US, hostile to Moscow; and Russia towards China, hostile to New Delhi. Although detractors were long forecasting the demise of the “anomalous” Indo-Russian ties between a democracy and an autocracy. India is apparently being propped up by the US as a bulwark against China. However, India would never turn its perceived US-closeness into a full-blown military conflict with China. 

Defence ties still remain the bedrock of the Indo-Russia “special and privileged strategic” relationship. Indo-Russia joint defence production is worth $25-32 billion, including projects like BrahMos missiles, T-90 tanks, AK-203 Kalashnikov assault rifle, Sukhoi Mk-30 fighter jets, Igla anti-aircraft platforms and Krivak-III frigates, etc. 

Russian inventory still equips more than 60% of Indian defence forces. Russian FMS are considered reliable and low maintenance. India is keeping a close tab on the fact that it used the expeditiously supplied Russian military equipment against China during the 2019 Ladakh crisis, given its damaging implications for Sino-Russia strategic ties. Indian quest to multiply its supply sources by taping the US/European market is clever opportunism.

Likewise, Russia has extensive joint military production projects in China. Russian weapon supply accounts for over 68% of Beijing’s arms imports, Sino-Russian strategic partnership; US-Russia hostility; and Indian grouping in the Quad (comprising US, India, Japan and Australia) — labeled ‘divisive’ by Moscow — are some compelling reasons, forcing a rethink on Russia’s foreign policy matrix. Moreover, both Russia and China, would want to nudge India away from the US, hence Moscow’s amity and warming up towards Pakistan. 

Pakistan’s recent policy calibration under the Islamabad Security Dialogue (ISD) in mid-March and Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership are complementary “balancing” strategies that emphasise connectivity-driven economic diplomacy. However, expecting rapid rapprochement with Russia leading to closer cooperation would be naïve. Russia in oriental fashion, values its alliances — past and present. It was in 2012, when President Putin cancelled his announced visit to Pakistan at the Indian behest. Putin’s visit still remains a litmus test for bilateral ties. 

Lavrov’s visit is also attributed to the growing Russian clout in South Asia. Moscow offered mediation for border talks between India and China and showed increasing interest in the Afghan peace process with Pakistan’s involvement. Zamir Kabulov, the Russian special envoy for Afghanistan and a former ambassador to Kabul, is considered the main supporter of rapprochement with Pakistan, due to Islamabad’s influence over the Taliban and Russia’s own significant Muslim population. 

A perceptible shift is underway in Russia’s geo-strategic calculus. It is signaling to India not to expect Moscow’s total fidelity if it continues to tilt towards the US. China-Russia amity remains another factor. Pakistan needs to play up smartly and patiently keeping manageable expectations.

Bears hibernate but have a shrewd sense of friendship

Published in The Express Tribune, April 15th, 2021.

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Biden plans to pull out all US troops from Afghanistan by Sept 11

 Published April 14, 2021
US President Joe Biden would formally announce the pullout schedule on Wednesday. — AFP/File
US President Joe Biden would formally announce the pullout schedule on Wednesday. — AFP/File

WASHINGTON: All US troops will leave Afghanistan by Sept 11 and the withdrawal will start before May 1, a deadline set in the US-Taliban agreement signed last year, a senior administration official told reporters on Tuesday. 

“We will begin an orderly drawdown of the remaining forces before May 1 and plan to have all US troops out of the country before the 20th anniversary of 9/11,” the official said. The US still has some 2,500 troops in Afghanistan. 

At a hurriedly called virtual conference, the official also said that US President Joe Biden would formally announce the pullout schedule on Wednesday (today). 

The proposed schedule is seen as a “mid-way” between meeting the May 1 deadline, set in the agreement US and Taliban negotiators finalised in Doha last February, and completely ignoring it. 

President Biden had said soon after entering the White House that it would be difficult to pull all the troops out by May 1, as required in the agreement. Policymakers in Washington hope that the decision to begin the withdrawal before May 1 would be seen by the Taliban as indicating the Biden administration’s determination to respect the agreement signed by their predecessors. 

The official who briefed the media said the president had concluded that “the best path forward to advance American interests is to end the war in Afghanistan after 20 years” and address “the global threat picture as it exists today, not as it was two decades ago”. 

He said the objective behind sending troops to Afghanistan was to ensure that the country was not used as a safe haven for launching 9/11-like attacks on the United States and its allies. 

“We believe we achieved that objective some years ago. We judged the threat against the homeland now emanating from Afghanistan to be at a level that we can address it, without a persistent military footprint in the country and without remaining at war with the Taliban,” the official said. 

The US and Nato officials had previously said the Taliban had failed to live up to commitments to reduce violence they made in the February 2020 agreement and that was why the withdrawal was delayed. They also expressed the fear that a total US withdrawal could cause the collapse of the Afghan government in Kabul. 

At Tuesday’s briefing, the senior administration official said that the United States would “remain deeply engaged with the government of Afghanistan” and would also remain “committed to the Afghan people who have made extraordinary sacrifices” during this conflict. 

“We will stand behind the diplomatic process, and we will use our full toolkit to ensure the future that the Afghan people are seeking has the best chance of coming about,” he said. 

The official said the Taliban have also been warned not to attack withdrawing troops. “We have told the Taliban in no uncertain terms that any attacks on US troops, as we undergo a safe and orderly withdrawal, will be met with a forceful response,” he said. 

“At this point we have discussed the drawdown with our Nato allies and operational partners. We will remain in lockstep with them as we undergo this operation.” 

Explaining why the Biden administration also concluded that withdrawal was the best option, the official said: “We have long known that military force would not solve Afghanistan’s internal political challenges; would not end Afghanistan’s internal conflict. And so, we are ending our military operations while we focus our efforts on supporting diplomatically.” 

The official said the decision followed an extensive review of the US Afghan policy and “what emerged was a clear-eyed assessment of the best path forward”. 

The review, he said, concluded that “there is no military solution to the problems plaguing Afghanistan and we will focus our efforts on supporting the ongoing peace process”. 

Supporting the process required “putting the full weight of our government behind diplomatic efforts to reach a peace agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government”. 

He said the United States realised the importance of the US- and Nato-led peace efforts “but what we will not do is use our troops as bargaining chips in that process”. 

Published in Dawn, April 14th, 2021

 

Afghanistan’s war ending on 9/11

We must laud Biden’s urge to end this war because he sees its continuation as a drag on real issues


Imran Jan April 15, 2021
Express Tribune
 
The writer is a political analyst. Email: imran.jan@gmail.com. Twitter @Imran_Jan 

President Joe Biden has announced that America’s longest war would be brought to an end on September 11, 2021 — the 20th anniversary of what started the war. But what caused 9/11 has been open for debate. Steve Coll argues that the events of 1979 led up to 9/11. Lawrence Wright believes the fire was ignited back in 1948 when Sayyid Qutb started seeing sexual filth in American society as a student in Colorado. Qutb’s writings, especially his book, Milestones, created a generation of Takfiri jihadists. A more intellectually intriguing argument is put forth by Tariq Ali. He says the roots of 9/11 could be traced all the way to 1916 and 1917. The Sykes-Picot happened in 1916 creating a feeling of humiliation among Muslims, followed by the Russian Revolution bringing the Bolsheviks to power.

Both outcomes interacted with each other through the decades. The Western society, especially the United States, used the Jihadist mindset of radical Muslims to counter what had come out of the Russian Revolution (communism). 

We must laud Biden’s urge to end this war because he sees its continuation as a drag on real issues such as climate change, the pandemic, and the eroding US influence globally. But while those issues especially climate change are quite real and it is commendable that the Biden administration wants to redirect American energy and resources toward them, it would not be a walk in the park. I’m hopeful that the Taliban would agree to this slight delay in withdrawal in the upcoming meeting in Turkey.

When I first arrived in America, it was about a week after Shah Rukh Khan was detained at the New Jersey airport suspecting him to be a terrorist due to his last name. In those days, international news was the news. People in America knew about Peshawar, Afghanistan, and the ISI headquarters more than they knew about the local Walmart because grim descriptions of the former places along with horrid pictures were ever present on the pages of The New York Times and TIME magazine. Today, international news has been relegated to some sort of intergalactic space where no news outlet catches it much. 

Every time I turn on Pakistani news channels, there is the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) or other local news. Even talk show anchors in their show promos claim to be focused on domestic issues. I do realise Aristotle’s dictum that all politics is local but there is no politics in Pakistan without global politics. Every time I turn on CNN, FOX or MSNBC; the news is only national. Even the lens with which the Afghanistan war is viewed is domestic and it’s disgusting. The NYT reported this week that “nearly 2,400 American troops have died in Afghanistan in a conflict that has cost about $2 trillion.” Not a word about the Afghan and Pakistani deaths or how much it cost them. Jon Soltz, an Iraq war veteran, said that “words cannot adequately express how huge this is for troops and military families, who have weathered deployment after deployment, with no end in sight, for the better part of two decades.” Nothing about the people who lived under that occupation, not for the better part of those two decades but rather the entire two decades. 

Turning the attention of a nation that is high on local, toward global threats that require both global and domestic awareness would be hard. Asking a nation that only hears about stimulus checks and George Floyd to cut down on beef and gasoline consumption or else risk being drowned is too much. While Trump would have loved this showmanship of ending the war on the 20th anniversary of 9/11, the topic wouldn’t trend on American social media because international news is out of fashion in America today.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 15th, 2021.


Biden presses Pakistan as he announces Afghan exit

Published April 15, 2021
[Dawn News]

WASHINGTON: US Pre­sident Joe Biden warned the Taliban on Wednesday he would hold them accountable on Afghanistan after the US exit and pressed nations, including Pakistan, to play supportive roles.

“We will hold the Taliban accountable for its commitment not to allow any terrorists to threaten the US or its allies from Afghan soil. The Afghan government has made that commitment to us as well,” Biden said in a speech announcing the complete pullout of US troops before Sept 11.

“We will ask other countries in the region to support Afghanistan, especially Pakistan, as well as Russia, China, India and Turkey.”

Notably not naming Iran, Biden said that the countries in the region “have a significant stake in the stable future” of Afghanistan.

Earlier, Chief of the Army Staff Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, in a telephonic conversation with US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, said that Pakistan would always support an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process based on consensus of all stakeholders.

During the conversation matters of mutual interest, regional security situation including latest developments in the the Afghan peace process and bilateral cooperation in various fields came under discussion, said an Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) media release.

The US dignitary acknowledged Pakistan’s continuous efforts for peace and stability in the region and pledged to enhance relations between the two countries.

Published in Dawn, April 15th, 2021

UAE is mediating between India and Pakistan, says senior diplomat

Published April 15, 2021 
[Dawn News]

The United Arab Emirates' (UAE) envoy to Washington confirmed the Gulf state is mediating between India and Pakistan to help the nuclear-armed rivals reach a “healthy and functional” relationship.

Top intelligence officers from India and Pakistan held secret talks in Dubai in January in a new effort to calm military tension over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, people with knowledge of the matter had told Reuters.

Ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba said in a virtual discussion with Stanford University's Hoover Institution on Wednesday that the UAE played a role “in bringing Kashmir escalation down and created a ceasefire, hopefully ultimately leading to restoring diplomats and getting the relationship back to a healthy level”.

ReadIndia and Pakistan are losing out on potential public diplomacy efforts by restricting exchange and access

“They might not sort of become best friends but at least we want to get it to a level where it's functional, where it's operational, where they are speaking to each other,” he said.

Ties between India and Pakistan have been frozen since a suicide bombing of an Indian military convoy in occupied Kashmir in 2019 was blamed on Pakistan, leading to India sending warplanes to Pakistan.

Later that year, India's prime minister withdrew the occupied region's autonomy in order to tighten his grip over the territory, provoking outrage in Pakistan and the downgrading of diplomatic ties and suspension of bilateral trade.

Otaiba also said that Pakistan should play a helpful role in Afghanistan, where the United States plans to start withdrawing US troops on May 1 to end America's longest war.

The Emirati official voiced concern that an abrupt US withdrawal would constitute “reverse progress” by serving the interests of “the more illiberal forces” in Afghanistan.

“The question is if the three parties (the US, Taliban and Afghan government) can reach an agreement that they can all live with,” Otaiba said.

“It's hard for us to see a way to stabilise Afghanistan without Pakistan playing a helpful role,” he added.

Turkey is due to host a peace summit for Afghanistan from April 24 to May 4 meant to jump-start efforts to end the war and sketch out a possible political settlement.

 

US imposes wide array of sanctions on Russia for 'malign' actions

[Dawn News]

The United States on Thursday imposed a broad array of sanctions on Russia to punish it for alleged interference in the 2020 US election, cyber-hacking, bullying Ukraine and other “malign” acts.

The measures blacklisted Russian companies, expelled Russian diplomats and placed limits on the Russian sovereign debt market. More penalties could come, although Washington did not want to escalate matters, the Biden administration said.

Moscow reacted angrily, saying this dangerously raised the temperature between the two countries. It summoned the US ambassador for what it said would be a tough conversation.

Among the actions, President Joe Biden issued an executive order authorising the US government to sanction any sector of the Russian economy and used it to restrict Russia's ability to issue sovereign debt to punish Moscow for interfering in the 2020 US election, an allegation Russia denies.

Biden barred US financial institutions from taking part in the primary market for rouble-denominated Russian sovereign bonds from June 14. US banks have been barred from taking part in the primary market for non-rouble sovereign bonds since 2019.

The US Treasury also blacklisted 32 entities and individuals which it said had carried out Russian government-directed attempts to influence the 2020 US presidential election and other “acts of disinformation and interference”.

In concert with the European Union, Britain, Australia and Canada, the Treasury also sanctioned eight individuals associated with Russia's ongoing occupation and repression in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman said Moscow would respond to the sanctions in the near future.

Russia denies meddling in US elections and orchestrating a cyber hack that used US tech company SolarWinds Corp SWI.N to penetrate US government networks. It also denies using a nerve agent to poison Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

It has brushed off allegations that it put bounties on US soldiers in Afghanistan.

“We have repeatedly warned the United States about the consequences of their hostile steps which dangerously raise the temperature of confrontation between our two countries,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters.

She said that although Biden had spoken to President Vladimir Putin about his interest in normalising relations, his administration's actions testified to the opposite.

The ministry had summoned the US ambassador, she said, adding: “It's not going to be a pleasant meeting for him.” 

The White House said it was expelling 10 Russian diplomats in Washington DC, including representatives of the Russian intelligence services and for the first time, formally named the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) as the perpetrator of the SolarWinds Corp hack.

The US government plans a new executive order to help strengthen its cybersecurity, a US official told reporters, suggesting it could include such elements as encryption and multifactor authentication.

US intelligence agencies have “low to moderate” confidence in their assessment that Russia offered bounties to Taliban-linked militants to kill US soldiers in Afghanistan, a senior US official told reporters in a conference call.

“Given the sensitivity of this matter, which involves the safety and well-being of our forces, it is being handled through diplomatic, military and intelligence channels,” the White House said. US officials said some of their response to Russian actions would be “unseen”, a hint they would involve US spy agencies.

Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, described the sanctions as “proportionate measures to defend American interests in response to harmful Russian actions”.

“His (Biden's) goal is to provide a significant and credible response but not to escalate the situation,” Sullivan told CNN. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner said the sanctions were a “good first step” to showing that such actions were not acceptable.

“The scale and scope of this hack are beyond any that we've seen before, and [the sanctions] should make clear that we will hold Russia and other adversaries accountable for committing this kind of malicious cyber activity against American targets,” he said in a statement.

The actions initially sent the Russian rouble down more than two per cent against the dollar and to a more than five-month low against the euro before clawing back some losses.

Timothy Ash of Bluebay Asset Management said the rouble looked like it was enjoying a relief rally.

“Market rallying as they are realising this is pretty soft in reality. No oligarchs. US institutions cannot buy Russian sovereign debt in primary issuance but can get their Russian bank friends to buy it for them in primary, give them a fee, and then buy it in the secondary,” he said.

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